Knowledge of the short-term probability function for extreme crest heights is central to the problem of determining the probability that a wave crest may exceed a certain level. In the present paper short-term probability functions for extreme crests are studied. The probability distributions for maximum crest heights have been derived from numerical simulations of long-crested non-Gaussian irregular waves, wave tests with long-crested and short-crested irregular waves, and field measurements. Comparisons between the distributions indicate that short-term extreme crest height distributions for severe storms may be determined from simulations with second order wave theory provided that due account is taken to the duration and to the shape of the storms.
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