COMPARISON OF PROJECTIONS TO ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN THE DOE-EPRI WIND TURBINE VERIFICATION PROGRAM

摘要

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy/Electric Power Research Institute (DOE-EPRI) Wind Turbine Verification Program (TVP), Global Energy Concepts (GEC) worked with participating utilities to develop a set of performance projections for their projects based on historical site atmospheric conditions, turbine performance data, operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies, and assumptions about various energy losses. After a preliminary operation period at each project, GEC compared the actual performance to projections and evaluated the accuracy of the data and assumptions that formed the performance projections. This paper presents a comparison of 1999 power output, turbine availability, and other performance characteristics to the projections for TVP projects in Texas, Vermont, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Alaska. Factors that were overestimated or underestimated are quantified. Actual wind speeds are compared to projections based on long-term historical measurements. Turbine power curve measurements are compared with data provided by the manufacturers, and loss assumptions are evaluated for accuracy. Overall, the projects performed well, particularly new commercial turbines in the first few years of operation. However, some sites experienced below average wind resources and greater than expected losses. The TVP project owners successfully developed and constructed wind power plants that are now in full commercial operation, serving a total of approximately 12,000 households.