Reliability assessment in electrical power systems: the weibull-Markov stochastic model

摘要

The field of power system reliability is dominated by the use of homogeneous Markov models. The negative exponential distributions in these models, however, are unrealistic in the case of repair or switching times. The use of homogeneous Markovmodels is often justified by arguing that the use of other models makes it impossible to perform analytical or non-sequential calculations. A special kind of semi-Markov model is proposed here which uses Weibull-distributions for all stochastic durations. The proposed model encloses the homogeneous Markov model as a subset, enables bell-shaped duration distributions and may be used in various analytical and non-sequential reliability assessment methods.