Method for the exploration of cause and effect links and derivation of causal trees from accident reports

摘要

The ultimate goal of knowledge-based aircraft design, pilot training and flight operations is to make flight safety an inherent, built-in feature of the flight vehicle, such as its aerodynamics, strength, economics and comfort are. Individual flight accidents and incidents may vary in terms of quantitative characteristics, circumstances, and other external details. However, their cause-and-effect patterns often reveal invariant structure or essential causal chains which may re-occur in the future for the same or other vehicle types. The identification of invariant logical patterns from flight accident reports, time-histories and other data sources is very important for enhancing flight safety at the level of the "pilot-vehicle-operational conditions" system. The objective of this research project was to develop and assess a method for "mining" knowledge of typical cause-and-effect patterns from flight accidents and incidents.