AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR REPLACEMENT OF THE COMPONENTS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

摘要

Generally, the economic assessments of the major component replacements of nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been carried out in deterministic ways. However, the deterministic assessments had difficulty in treating the input variables with uncertainties, and could result in erroneous decision. A method based on the probability theory would be a proper alternative to take into account the uncertainties in real world much precisely. In this paper, an economic assessment for replacement of an NPP component has been performed through the decision analysis adopting the probability theory. The major factors of the decision analysis are the selected alternative among various options, the results brought about from the selection, and the relative priority of the certain alternative compared to the others. A significant advantage of the decision analysis lies in processing the uncertainties and risks. The model of decision analysis could be built with influence diagrams and decision trees. In this paper, the optimal time of replacing "A" type of steam generator (SG) was determined using the decision analysis methodology. This methodology can be applied to the economic evaluations for replacements of major components of NPPs under the free competition of Korean power market of in the future.