A PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE MINUTEMAN III INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE (ICBM) SYSTEM: A CASE STUDY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

摘要

Historically, the Department of Defense (DoD) risk management decisions concerning nuclear weapon system safety have, for the most part, been based on qualitative information. But, with the end of the "Cold War", dissolution of Strategic Air Command, and a lessening of the emphasis on strategic nuclear war, a new focus has evolved in the way DoD "proves" the safety of its nuclear weapons. In December 1991, the Air Force Chief of Safety requested the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) initiate a study to determine the probability of special nuclear material dispersal as a result of an accident with nuclear weapons associated with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). DNA accepted the Air Force's challenge and in December of 1993 provided them with a draft baseline probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Air Force's ICBMs. The assessment looked at all weapon system operations while in DoD custody as well as transport by DOE. This paper describes the events leading up to the Air Force's request and the more challenging aspects of the PRA, as well as outlining the risk assessment methodologies used and the applicability to other DoD nuclear delivery systems.