Prediction of Household Consumption Based on the Model

摘要

In the electric power grid, an influence of intermittent sources starts not to be negligible. Increasing the percentage of production from renewable energy sources may increase demands for power regulation in the network. However, the power regulation is now mostly ensured through the control of fossil power plants. Exiting from the use of fossil fuels will further reduce the possibility of regulation. One of the solutions can be regulation on the customer side where they can actively manage their consumption. This solution requires the development of infrastructures such as smart meter and communication systems, which have been, however, uneconomic so far. Until the cost of technology is reduced, the way to develop a decentralized energy grid is by using the predictions of user consumption. Such estimate must be much more accurate than the currently available load profile of distribution tariffs. The present research, therefore, evaluates the changes in diagrams of households' electricity consumption based on usage of the different household electric appliances, prediction of lifestyle patterns, improving thermal and the technical properties of the buildings leading to a model to estimate the future consumption profile of households. All research is carried out on data from the Czech Republic.