Modeling of Electricity Demand in the Region under Uncertainty

摘要

The changes on the electricity market affecting consumers increase uncertainty concerning demand for electricity and force the development of new methods of the analysis and the forecast of electricity demand in the regions understood in the paper as the province. A method for forecasting electricity demand in the region based on the idea of an end-use model is presented. Such models use regional electricity consumption rates. The data published by GUS (Statistics Poland) form the Local Data Bank. The data are grouped according to the division of the country into units and according to the category, such as electricity consumption in the sectors of economy, ie. the industrial sector, power sector, transport, households, agriculture and other consumption. Using the above data, demographic data and regional economic data, electricity consumption rates are created. The time series of electricity consumption rates are treated as dynamic processes with random perturbations and can be modeled by means of stochastic equations of Ito type. The model deploys stochastic differential equations (SDE) for simulating time-variation of electricity consumption rates by means of the Euler method. On the basis of available statistical data, the results of a forecast of the electricity demand in the region in a medium-term horizon are presented.