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A New Method for Hypothesis Testing Using Inferential Models with an Application to the Changepoint Problem

机译:一种使用推断模型与换向点问题的推理模型的新方法

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Hypothesis testing, which has been studied since the time of Fisher, Neyman and Pearson, is a fundamentally important task in statistics. As of now, the classical p-value has been extensively used for more than half a century. However, a number of serious drawbacks have been documented over the years. With the flourish of data science recently, there is a growing demand for better approaches. In this paper, we propose a novel method for hypothesis testing based on the inferential models by Martin and Liu. Our approach not only avoids all major weaknesses of the classical p-value but also provides considerable flexibility in perform testing. Besides, in this regard, the inferential model has some advantages over the popular Bayesian framework. As for application, the hazard rate estimation in the changepoint problem is investigated with the Down Jones index data. In particular, explicit computations are performed, and followed by a set of graphs at the changepoints.
机译:假设检测已经研究过,自渔夫,奈曼和皮尔逊,是统计数据的根本重要的任务。截至目前,经典的P值已广泛使用超过半个世纪。但是,多年来已经记录了许多严重缺点。随着数据科学的蓬勃发展,越来越多的需求,更好的方法。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于Martin和Liu的推理模型的假设检测方法。我们的方法不仅避免了经典p值的所有主要弱点,而且还提供了相当大的灵活性在执行测试中。此外,在这方面,推理模型对流行的贝叶斯框架有一些优势。至于应用,通过向下琼斯索引数据调查变换点问题中的危险率估计。特别地,执行显式计算,并在ChangePoints上进行一组图表。

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