The Future of Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in sub-Saharan Africa

摘要

Energy transition in the last decade has experienced increased quota of renewable energy in the global energy mix. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the transition from the fossil fuel to the renewable energy source has been gradual. The state of renewable energy in the region in the next decade is the focus of this study. This study uses a single-layer perceptron artificial neural network (SLP-ANN) to backcast from 2015 to 2006 and forecast from 2016 to 2020 the percentage of renewable energy for electricity generation, exempting the hydropower in the energy mix of the SSA based on historical data. The backcast percentage renewable energy mix was evaluated using known statistical metrics for accuracy measures. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained were 0.29, 0.18, and 14.69 respectively. The result shows possibility of an increase in the percentage of renewable energy in the electricity sector in the region. In 2020, the percentage of renewable energy in sub-Saharan region is expected to rise to 4.13% with exclusion of the hydropower. With government policies encouraging the growth of the renewable energy as a means of power generation in the region, the predicted percentage and even more can be realized.