Disaster Economics and Networked Transportation Infrastructures: Status Quo and a Multi-disciplinary Framework to Estimate Economic Losses

摘要

In recent years, the frequency and severity of catastrophic events triggered by natural hazards have increased. Meanwhile, man-made hazards, such as terrorist attacks, and their impacts on infrastructure systems have gained increasing attention. These hazards (both natural and man-made) can cause catastrophic physical damage to transportation infrastructure systems that are essential to the wellbeing of the society. Moreover, the direct economic losses (e.g., physical damage to infrastructure) diffuse and expand continually through the disruption of economic activities between different regions and industries, resulting in enormous and complex indirect losses. A comprehensive investigation of total losses, including direct and indirect losses, requires the use of economic impact analysis models. However, most of the economic impact analysis methods and models introduced in the existing literature fail to incorporate the spatially distributed and networked nature of transportation infrastructures. To achieve a comprehensive and a realistic understanding of the economic impacts caused by the disturbances to the transportation infrastructure, the spatial distribution and the networked nature of transportation systems has to be accounted for, and realistic and locally relevant hazard scenarios must be incorporated into the economic analyses. This paper first provides a detailed account of the status-quo in economic modeling associated with impact analysis of transportation disturbances to identify the gaps in this domain. Next, focusing on the commuting related economic impacts of transportation disturbances as an example, the paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework designed to demonstrate an understanding on how to address the gaps. Preliminary results from a Los Angeles case study are presented.