The Equilibrium Analysis of Consumption and Imports of Soybean in Indonesia

摘要

This article aims to explain the influence and equilibrium of soybean price, per capita income and soybean import to soybean consumption in short and long terms in Indonesia. In addition, the effect and equilibrium of real exchange rate, per capita income and soybean consumption to soybean import in short and long-terms in Indonesia are also analysed. The study used time series data from 1986 to 2015, and utilized Co-integration Model and Error Correction Mechanism Model. There are four important findings from the study. First, the soybean price, per capita income and soybean import significantly affected the soybean consumption in Indonesia. Second, in the short-term, the soybean price and per capita income disrupt the equilibrium of soybean consumption, while in the long-term, the consumption of soybeanwill reach back to its equilibrium. Third, the real exchange rate, per capita income, and soybean consumption significantly affected soybean imports in Indonesia. Fourth, the real exchange rate and per capita income disrupts the soybean import in short-term, but it will reach back to its equilibrium in the long-term. Accordingly, it is strongly recommended for the Indonesian government to reduce soybean imports by increasing soybean production and establishing local soybean prices, so that the soybean farmers would feel advantaged.