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Use of a Probabilistic and Multi-Objective History Matching for Uncertainty Reduction for the Norne Benchmark Case

机译:利用概率和多目标历史匹配对Norne基准案件的不确定性降低

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History matching integrated with uncertainty reduction is a key process in the closed loop reservoir development and management methodology which is used for decision analysis related to the development & management of petroleum fields. Despite developments over the last decades in history matching & uncertainty analysis, the challenge of capturing complex interaction among several attributes and several reservoir responses acting simultaneously for complex models still remains. This paper describes the use of a probabilistic and multi-objective history matching integrated with uncertainty reduction as a systematic and iterative process for obtaining a set of reservoir models that honors dynamic data in a complex field case. The methodology is an iterative process that simultaneously matches different objective functions, one for each well production profile. The procedure uses a re-characterization step, where the uncertainties of the attributes (represented by their probability density functions) are updated using indicators that show global and local problems and a correlation matrix to capture the interaction between several reservoir uncertainties and the different objective functions. The methodology was applied to the Norne Field benchmark case considering production data up to 2001 and the remaining part of the provided history is used to estimate the quality of production forecast. The major benefit derived from the application of the methodology was the identification of global and local problems. The initial reservoir models presented high discrepancies between simulated and observed data. The use of independent objective functions in conjunction with the concise plot that is based on the normalized quadratic error of each production data highlighted when new parametrization of the reservoir was necessary. New reservoir attributes were added, such as separated permeability curves for each reservoir formation and new gas permeability curves that better describe the fluid behavior. The initial number of uncertain attributes was twenty seven; the correlation matrix clearly showed which one of those had major influence on the results. Some attributes with significant impact in the study were water-oil and gas-oil contact and faults transmissibility. We updated the probability of the most influencing attributes in order to identify the uncertain levels that improved the history match results. The methodology integrated the process of history matching with uncertainty analysis, addressing both processes simultaneously for a complex case. The methodology was effective and simple to use, even in the complex case study where the reservoir characterization is important.
机译:历史匹配与不确定性降低集成是闭环储层开发和管理方法的关键过程,用于决策分析与石油领域的开发和管理有关。尽管在历史匹配和不确定性分析中,在过去几十年中产生了发展,但仍然存在对复杂模型同时作用的若干属性和几个水库反应之间复杂互动的挑战。本文介绍了利用概率和多目标的历史拟合不确定性降低集成为一个系统的,反复的过程,获得一组油藏模型的,在一个复杂的领域案件荣誉动态数据。该方法是一个迭代过程,它同时匹配不同的客观函数,一个用于每个井生产型材。该过程使用重新表征步骤,其中使用显示全局和局部问题的指示符和相关矩阵来更新属性(由其概率密度函数表示)的不确定性,以捕获多个储层不确定性与不同目标函数之间的交互。该方法应用于核武器场基准案,考虑到2001年的生产数据,并且提供的历史的剩余部分用于估计生产预测的质量。源于应用方法的主要利益是识别全球和地方问题。初始水库模型在模拟和观察数据之间呈现了高差异。使用独立的目标函数与基于每个生产数据的标准化二次误差的简明图,当需要新的储层的新参数化时突出显示。添加了新的储层属性,例如每个储层形成的分离渗透性曲线和更好地描述流体行为的新型助气曲线。不确定属性的最初数量是二十七;相关矩阵清楚地表明,其中一个对结果产生了重大影响。在该研究中产生重大影响的某些属性是水 - 油和燃气接触和故障传播性。我们更新了最大程度的属性的概率,以确定改善历史匹配结果的不确定水平。该方法集成了与不确定性分析的历史匹配过程,同时寻址复杂案例。这种方法有效且易于使用,即使在储层表征的复杂案例研究中也是重要的。

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