WATER RESOURCE IMPLICATIONS OF A GREEN ECONOMY TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE OF SOUTH AFRICA: A MODELLING APPROACH REVIEW

摘要

The Western Cape Province of South Africa has identified sustainable use of water resources as one of the critical needs to transform to a green economy. This paper aims to determine the role players in the water industry and an appropriate approach to model the potential effect that their actions might have. The drivers and enablers that affect water resources were found to be complex and interconnected. Further, from the review of a number of modelling techniques, system dynamics was subsequently identified as a technique that would be best suited for the case of water resources in the Western Cape Province. For the Province to transform to a green economy many changes that are long-term and multi-dimensional will need to take place; therefore the transition theory is also discussed in the context of multidimensional modelling. An extension of the study will be the development of the system dynamics model that will enable the involved parties to understand the expected water resource dynamics and identify potential leverage points to prevent future water shortages. Recommendations are made accordingly, for the research to ultimately lead to the improved management of sustainable growth in the African context.