Study of Population Growth and Land Use Change Impact of Intrusion at Pekalongan City

摘要

The research objective is to find a relation between population growths, land use change of Pekalongan City. Research location based on administrative boundary, which divided into coastal and non-coastal. Data series calculated from 2000-2015 as input correlation. Land use series data derived from Google earth data and Spot 5, also population growth based on literacy. Grid systemic used as sampling method. Land use derived using interpretation and accuracy result is 85,74%. Land uses at Pekalongan City on 2015 are elaborate as follows; building, open field and water body. Analysis data showed, especially built area growth 5,08ha per year. Based on population growth analyst of Pekalongan City from 2000-2015 showed 7,3% growth or 0,76 years. Population growth simulation on 2035 is 956.638 inhabitants, or 9,46 in 20 years. Meanwhile, with historical analysis, land use can be simulated to 2035 using Land use Sim and ArcGIS. Built area growth simulate in two scenarios. First use a linear growth, second using population growth correlations. The first scenario built area growth total 29,34km~2, and second 27,18km2. The impact of land use change and population growth is an intrusion. Based on laboratory tests show that Pekalongan city intrusion on high category. The region within distance 500-600m from the coastline has salinity level of 6,7 to 15.5%, 800-900m has a salinity level of 2,9 to 6.6%, 1-1.5km has a salinity level of 1,4 to 2,8. Conclusion, land use change on Pekalongan City rather high, especially shrub, and dry agriculture changes into a settlement and built area. Furthermore, the coefficient correlation between population and built area is high (0,93). These include a significant difference final result of simulation using Landuse Sim with linear approach and consider the expense of population growth influence. Furthermore, land use change on Pekalongan city drives an environmental problem, for instance intrusion.