Single population modelling on predicting global carbon dioxide concentration

摘要

Every year,the concentration of carbon dioxide is continuously increasing.In regard to this,it becomes a concern if this phenomena occurs repeatedly over time.When the concentration reaches at a certain point,it may have some bad effects on earth and will threaten life.If this event is ignored,then the earth and life on it will gradually be more effected and tumed its condition to be worse.Regarding to this,it might be helpful to have a model that can predict the concentration of carbon dioxide.Since a preventive action can be taken before the concentration gets higher in the future based on the prediction.The prediction model can be formulated by a population modelling,where the concentration amount is perceived as a single population.In this case,carbon dioxide emission and its absorption by photosynthesis will be two considered factors.Where emission will represent the birth,and the absorption represents the death of the population.By this model,it is predicted that about 58 years later the concentration will reach 500ppm.It has been evaluated that the model has small error to predict the current data.