LOGIT AND CASE-BASED ANALYSIS OF DRIVERS' AGE AS A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR FATAL TRAFFIC CRASHES ON HIGHWAYS AND STATE ROADS IN FLORIDA

摘要

This paper consists of two steps. First, it investigates the age and sex distribution of at-fault drivers of fatal crashes on the interstate and state highways in Florida using descriptive statistics. Second, it employs a binary logit model to test the statistical significance of the findings in the first step. The first step explores that the younger (=<24 years) and older (65-74, and >=75 years) drivers of both sexes are more likely to cause fatal crashes compared to the ‘average’ middle aged drivers. The female older (>=75 years) drivers are at highest level of vulnerability of causing fatal crashes followed by younger male drivers. The logit analysis shows that younger drivers are more likely to cause fatal crashes than drivers of 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65- 74 age cohorts. On the other hand, it also reveals that older drivers have more likelihood of causing fatal crashes than younger drivers. The logit analysis does not find either of the sex groups to be more likely to cause fatal crashes than the other. The study recommends that frequent public transit services should be provided to the older drivers. It further proposes that effective measures should be taken to make current training and educational programs more effective if in place, and more such programs should be initiated if not in place. The study finds logit model as a useful tool to confirm or disconfirm the results of case-based and descriptive analysis.