Simulating the impact of the high-speed network on the performance of other transport operators: the HSR on the Lisbon-Oporto link

摘要

High Speed Rail (HSR) is part of the Trans-European Transport Network and, as such, large investments have been made in Europe since the late 1980's, and are expected to continue. Despite the current economic crisis, it is foreseeable that Portugal will pursue its HSR project in the medium to long term. The main objective of the present research is to model the strategic behavior of passenger transport operators that compete with HSR in a multi-modal corridor. As such, we analyze the potential changes in the strategies of existing operators after the (hypothetical) entry of HSR, applying our methodology to the case study of the link between Lisbon and Oporto, in Portugal. Our results indicate that the game theoretical approach using the optimization algorithm proposed is appropriate to simulate the operators’ strategic behavior in the face of new competition in a multimodal corridor. After the optimization and according to our assumptions, the HSR operator could potentially double the currently estimated profits, while the airline could try to minimize losses, possibly by collaborating with the HSR and avoiding costly connecting flights between Lisbon and Oporto. The HSR can become a threat to conventional rail if the current operator is not allowed to bid for the concession of HSR. Alternatively, it can collaborate with the HSR as a feeder and try to explore new market segments in the currently over-saturated link. Buses are the main winners as operators could potentially increase ticket prices, while increasing headways, and still increase their profits, despite some loss in modal share. The proposed approach aims to allow transportation companies or authorities to estimate new traffic shares due to appearance of a new competitor.