Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

摘要

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (ⅰ) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ⅱ) the predicted output interval, and (ⅲ) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certificate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data overfitting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the flux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.