A Transparent and Pragmatic Quantitative Risk Assessment Process for Assessing Fire Safety in New Zealand Tunnels

摘要

All tunnels have unique characteristics that result in different fire and life safety risk. The fire safety systems for each tunnel also give different benefits at different costs. It is therefore neither pragmatic nor cost-effective to prescribe specific fire standards requirements for all tunnels. Each tunnel needs to be assessed individually but using a common process. The owner/client is normally the risk owner and needs to make the decision on what fire and life safety provisions will be provided within the tunnel. To make this decision they need to be appropriately informed. The low probability and high consequence nature of fire events creates a challenge such that traditional analysis processes, which tend to focus on a major event after it has happened, are not easily applied and do not give the best value for money. Therefore a process is required that provides the relevant information to the owner for decision-making. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides a process and framework for the consideration of fire life safety risk when applied properly. This involves a risk assessment of the 'do nothing' option together with assessments of improvement options and their costs. It also involves consideration of benchmark safety levels for other tunnels and the open road. This paper will outline a QRA process for assessing fire and life safety risk in tunnels and how this has been used for three existing tunnels, Homer Tunnel, Lyttelton Tunnel and Mt Victoria Tunnel. Key challenges include determining an acceptable safety level, defining realistic inputs, providing sufficient complexity to get meaningful results but not so complex that transparency is lost and interpretation to enable decision-making by non-technical personnel.