Research on Multi-layer Risk Management Method in Complex Product Development

摘要

The development of complex products is a complicated multidisciplinary concurrent engineering with complicated task structure and strong technical innovation. The distributed development environment and networked collaborative design model not only bring great challenges to the modeling of complex product development, but also increase the need for risk assessment of the development process. In consideration of the shortcomings that existing risk modeling methods rarely take into account that the multi-layer quality of complex product development structure, the coupling characteristic of concurrent engineering, the simulation involving too many subjective factors and not making joint evaluation for cost risk and schedule risk this paper proposes a multi-layer cost schedule joint risk assessment model based on DSM. Combining with artificial neural networks and the Cholesky factor which can join two independently distributed variables, a DSM-based cost schedule joint simulation method is designed. Finally, this paper gives an introduction to the complex product risk management platform which has been developed and deployed to a relevant enterprise.