Prediction Model of Flush Flood and Debris Flow in Taihang Mountains Areas Based on Bayes Discriminatory Analysis

摘要

System science and debris flow prediction theory are adopted to analyze external environmental conditions of the system which influence the occurrence of flush flood and debris flow in the area. The external environmental conditions are introduced as model indexes and a set of prediction models is then established. By checking the model with oneself validation and cross validation, the accuracy for judging is 93.75%, which meets the requirement of Bayes discriminatory analysis that the accuracy of judged model should be more than 80%. Two validation results are consistent with each other and the model is stable.