DEVELOPMENT OF A STOCHASTIC-KINEMATIC CLOUD MODEL TO GENERATE HIGH-FREQUENCY SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND POWER DATA

摘要

In the absence of sufficient direct observations of surface irradiance, a novel approach to generate high-frequency synthetic irradiance and power data for proposed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is presented. This method utilizes low-frequency outputs from a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model coupled to a newly developed stochastic-kinematic cloud model to account for the rapid ramps caused by passing clouds. The cloud model simulates the movement and evolution of clouds (advection, growth, and decay). It is forced by the NWP model through a one-way nesting scheme. The coupled model is being applied to create two years of two-second solar irradiance and power production data for more than 100 proposed utility-scale (centralized) and rooftop (distributed) PV sites in Hawaii. The output is being validated with observations from over 25 stations. Results so far show good agreement with observed irradiance ramp rates for a wide range of temporal and spatial scales.