CO2 intensity and GDP per capita

摘要

The relationship between CO2 intensity and GDP per capita is studied.Most rich countries show falling CO2 intensity over time and a negative correlation with GDP per capita.Many poor and medium rich countries show the opposite,a positive time trend and a positive correlation with GDP per capita.For about a half of the countries with a negative correlation between CO2 intensity and GDP per capita,and in particular the largest economies of the world,there is strong evidence that CO2 intensity falls at a diminishing rate as countries get richer.Hence,economic growth will not by itself go very far in reconciling economic growth and reductions in CO2 emissions.There are indications that poor and medium rich countries experience a boost in CO2 intensity as they embark on industrialization.This will also make it harder to reconcile economic growth and cuts in CO2 emissions.Falling CO2 intensity of GDP in rich countries may not give a correct indication of what happens to world GDP because rich countries have outsourced much of their energy-intensive production to poorer countries.Looking at the production of eleven minerals 1960-2017,we find little or no evidence of dematerialization.Production of five minerals has grown more rapidly than world GDP and that of four other minerals more rapidly than world population.