Scenario Analysis of Electric Vehicle Technology Penetration in Thailand: Comparisons of Required Electricity with Power Development Plan and Projections of Fossil fuel and Greenhouse Gas Reduction

摘要

In this study, the benefits and trade-off for penetration of electric vehicle (EV) technology in Thai road transportation were analyzed by using offend-use energy demand model. Two vehicle types (motorcycle and passenger car) were considered for possible EV penetration as partial EV, which are hybrid EV (HEV) and plug-in hybrid EV (PEV) and full EV, which is battery EV (BEV). The assumption for EV penetration was derived from Thai government policy target and available technology perspective into four different scenarios, e.g. Business As Usual (BAU), electric motorcycle (eMC), passenger car EV (PcEV) and the extremely case of combined EV penetration in both motorcycle and passenger car. The energy demand model for road transportation from our previous works was constructed using