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GLOBAL HIERARCHICAL MODELS FOR WIND AND WAVE CONTOURS: PHYSICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF THE DEPENDENCE FUNCTIONS

机译:风波轮廓的全局层次模型:依赖函数的物理解释

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Applications such as the design of offshore wind turbines requires the estimation of the joint distribution of variables like wind speed, wave height and wave period. The joint distribution can then be used, for example, to define design load cases using the environmental contour method. Often the joint distribution is described using so-called global hierarchical models. In these models, one variable is taken as independent and the other variables are modelled to be conditional on this variable using particular dependence functions. In this paper, we propose to use dependence functions that offer physical interpretation. We define a novel dependence function that describes how the median of the zero-up-crossing period increases with significant wave height and a novel dependence function that describes how the median significant wave height increases with wind speed. These dependence functions allow us to reason about the physical meaning, even when we extrapolate outside the range of a given sample of environmental data. In addition, we can analyze the estimated parameters of the dependence function to speculate which kind of sea dominates at a given site. We fitted statistical models with the proposed dependence functions to six datasets and analyzed the estimated parameters. Then we calculated environmental contours based on these estimated joint distributions. The environmental contours had physically reasonable shapes, even at areas that were outside the datasets that were used to fit the underlying distributions.
机译:诸如海上风力涡轮机设计的应用需要估计风速,波高和波段等变量的接合分布。然后可以使用联合分布,例如,使用环境轮廓方法定义设计载荷盒。通常使用所谓的全局分层模型来描述联合分布。在这些模型中,一个变量被拍摄为独立,另一个变量在使用特定依赖函数上建模为条件为条件。在本文中,我们建议使用提供物理解释的依赖函数。我们定义了一种新颖的依赖函数,该依赖性函数描述了零轴交叉周期的中值,其具有显着的波形高度和新的依赖函数,该依赖性函数描述了中值的显着波浪高度随着风速而增加的。这些依赖函数允许我们推理物理意义,即使我们推断出在给定的环境数据样本的范围之外。此外,我们可以分析依赖函数的估计参数,以推测在给定站点的哪种海上占据占据占主导地位的估计参数。我们将统计模型与所提出的依赖函数拟合到六个数据集并分析估计参数。然后我们根据这些估计的联合分布计算了环境轮廓。即使在用于符合底层分布的数据集外的区域,环境轮廓也具有身体上的合理形状。

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