IMPACT OF FOREST MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING ON FOREST BIOMASS SUPPLY IN REGIONAL LEVEL OF FINLAND

摘要

Forest management decisions can influence significantly on forest biomass supply and resources in short- and long term. Forest bioeconomy has shown its potential for economic growth in Finland, which aims increasing both industrial and energy use of wood remarkable. Investments in the forest industry are reflected in job opportunities especially in the forest biomass supply chains as a result of more efficient use of forests. The economic impact can influence especially the forest owners and transport operators, but it is relevant to the entire regional economies. The forest industry's major investments are being realized mainly through centralization, but forest energy potential could generate decentralized opportunities and economic growth also in regional level, alongside the existing forest industry. The aim of the study was to measure the impact of alternative forest management decisions on removal and costs of forest biomass in the regional area of South-Savo in eastern Finland. The study investigated the industrial round wood and energy wood availability and supply using the latest forest inventory data, National Forest Inventory (NFI). The stand data consisted of young grove-like spruce and dryish pine dominated stands before first thinning. Current forest management regime was compared to the scenarios in which either industrial or energy end-use targets were emphasized in forest management. An existing forest stand simulator (MOTTI) was used with more reliable tree-based platform for future changes in 5-year cycles. The profitability of forestry was analyzed by applying the accurate regional stumpage and roadside prices based on updated statistics. The study showed very low estimated stumpage prices and harvesting costs for energy wood based forest management and procurement compared to corresponding industrial round wood. Competitive costs of energy wood will give a positive signal for increasing the regional renewable energy use and possibility for additional investments. Follow-up project provide the input data to investigate the economic effects of forest policy changes as a part of total regional economy by applying a modified CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, RegFinDyn.