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Risk Oriented Real Estate Confidence Assessment

机译:风险导向房地产信心评估

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摘要

This paper presents an improved approach to assessing the public confidence to the real estate market with an integrated evaluation of all risks in properties development. A real estate confidence index (RECI) for the Chinese market, called CRE Index, is introduced first with regard to three identified diverse aspects, including effective demand and supply, potential demand, and potential supply; and the CRE Index is composed based on its three weighted sub-indices which reflect the value of these three aspects. The weights of the three subindices are derived from multiple risks assessment using analytic network process (ANP), and the ANP model is set up with five criteria clusters to cover social, technical, economic, ecological and political (STEEP) risks related to properties development and one evaluation cluster which consists of three elements that reflect the three sub-indices of the CRE Index. As a result, the embedded risk assessment in the CRE Index provides a new evaluation mechanism to detect the public confidence to the real estate market in terms of all potential risks related across the lifecycle of properties.
机译:本文提出了一种改进的方法来评估对房地产市场的公众信心,并在综合评价物业发展中的所有风险评估。在中国市场的房地产信心指数(RECI)称为CRE指数,首先在三个确定的多样化方面提出,包括有效的需求和供应,潜在需求和潜在供应;并且CRE指数基于其三个加权子指数,反映了这三个方面的价值。三个子曲线的权重来自使用分析网络过程(ANP)的多种风险评估,并且ANP模型与五个标准集群建立,以涵盖与属性发展有关的社会,技术,经济,生态和政治(陡峭)风险和一个由三个元素组成的一个评估群,反映CRE指数的三个子指数。因此,CRE指数中的嵌入式风险评估提供了一种新的评估机制,以检测对房地产市场的公众对房地产市场的所有潜在风险,这些潜在风险都是属性的所有潜在风险。

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