Probable Maximum Storm Surge Estimate for Miami, Florida Using SLOSHModel Simulations

摘要

The present paper investigates the effects of probable maximum storm surge at Miami, Florida by using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) two-dimensional operational storm surge model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes). The peninsular Florida region is subject to frequent intense hurricane attacks from the Atlantic Ocean. Over 40% of severe hurricanes, Category 3 and above in Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, that had landfall in the U.S. between 1851 and 2006, were on the Florida coast. Recent hurricane data indicates that Atlantic hurricane seasons have been significantly more active since 1995 with significant hurricane damages along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2005 and 2008.NOAA defines the probable maximum hurricane (PMH) as a hypothetical steady-state hurricane with a combination of meteorological parameters that will give the highest sustained wind speed that can probably occur at a specified coastal location. The maximum storm surge generated by a PMH at a location therefore would provide the upper bound of storm surges that has virtually no possibility of being exceeded. With Miami being the largest metropolis and growth center in southeastern Florida, this study investigates the storm surge level corresponding to a PMH event that may be taken as the limiting surge elevation for the Miami coast. The probable maximum surge elevation is developed by simulating the PMH in the SLOSH model. Model simulations are performed with numerous combinations of input PMH parameters including hurricane forward speed, radius of maximum wind, landfall location and hurricane direction to obtain the maximum storm surge elevation at the Miami coast. The PMH parameters are obtained from NOAA Technical Report NWS 23. The combination of PMH parameters used in the simulations and the resulting probable maximum storm surge at Miami, Florida are presented in this paper.