Changes of Stochastic Parameters of Rainfall between Present and FutureClimate in Asian Monsoon Regions Simulated from a Super-high ResolutionGlobal Climate Model

摘要

Many floods caused by heavy rainfalls threatened the world from the end ofthe 20th century. In this study, the future changes of stochastic parameters of rainfallare investigated in Asian Monsoon regions, using super-high resolution GlobalClimate Model (GCM). The future changes of rainfall intensity and temporalcorrelation lengths of rainfall intensity are estimated. The stochastic parameters ofTRMM satellite observation are compared with that of the present output. Also, a trialto see the extreme rainfall simulated from GCM is given. The probabilitydistributions of yearly maximum rainfall are examined and compared in the futureand present climate. The stochastic characteristics of extreme rainfall estimated fromground rain-gauge data of more than 30 years is used for its evaluation.