Predicting pre-harvest aflatoxin corn contamination risk with a drought index

摘要

Pre-harvest aflatoxin corn (Zea mays L.) contamination is a worldwide issue and predicting the risk is challenging. This study was conducted to determine whether a drought index could be used to predict corn aflatoxin contamination risk and the in-season and among sites risk differences. The Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) was evaluated as an aflatoxin risk prediction tool. Multiple logistic regression models were used to predict aflatoxin risk as a function of weekly ARID values, soil type and corn hybrid. Preliminary results revealed: (1) aflatoxin risk might be assessed by ARID; (2) soil and hybrid type were significant; and (3) ARID-based risk changed during the growing season. Therefore, contamination risk might be minimized byadapting site-specific management strategies.