MODELING DETERMINANTS OF CIVILIAN DEATHS IN THE IRAQ WAR

摘要

War and civil conflict are major causes of deaths and injuries among civilian populations in many countries. While the main focus to date in analysis of the Iraq insurgency has been on deaths among Coalition, Iraqi and insurgent forces, the conflict has had a major toll on the civilian population of Iraq. This study attempts to partially redress this imbalance by examining the impact of the insurgency on civilians. The study uses time-series analysis to model the impact of coalition and insurgent troop levels on frequency of externally-caused civilian deaths and the number of bombing-related civilian injuries in Iraq, for the period May 2003 to December 2007.