Scenario Analysis using System Dynamics Modelling: The case of Production Portfolio Change in the Dutch Paper and Board Industry

摘要

A scenario analysis on plausible futures served to explore the Dutch Paper and Board -P&B -^sIndustry's resilience towards competition in the form of an aggressive investment from outside the current industry. A System Dynamics model helped to visualize the effects on the Dutch industry's production portfolio. A scenario-space was constructed by combining three mega trends -^sDemand-shift for P&B products, Social awareness of recycling and Dutch business environment - and five alternative set-ups of a new facility by the prospective competitor.The model output reveals the dominance of the Demand-shift for P&B products, reinforced by the Social awareness of recycling, for a good performance of the Dutch P&B Industry, regardless of the new facility type. The Dutch business environment offers limited scope to counterbalance the decreasing sales of P&B products. Interestingly, this industry retains growing sales and profits patterns even in the worst-case scenario.The case study confirmed that the combination of scenario analysis and System Dynamics could support the analysis and visualization of the effects of major, competitive investments on a mature industry.