A multi-index approach to inflow prediction for water resources management

摘要

Significant variability in reservoir inflows is experienced across eastern Australia as a result of a number of known, identified climate modes. In particular, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect primarily summer (October-March) inflows. In this paper, a software suite is presented that enables: (i) the routine prediction of ENSO events, (ii) the assessment of likely inflow on monthly and seasonal timescales, and (iii) the updating of both climate and inflow prediction as new data are received. The scheme is demonstrated by application to a Sydney Catchment Authority (SCA) reservoir that supplies potable water for metropolitan Sydney. The tool is generalized and can be applied anywhere that significant correlations between ENSO and inflows are found.