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SOLAR CYCLE #24 AND THE SOLAR DYNAMO

机译:太阳循环#24和太阳能发电机

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We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a "solar precursor method," in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle's activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun's polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 ± 30 (2σ), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (~7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun's corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.
机译:我们专注于与飞行动态相关的两个太阳能面。这些是太阳能发电机和长期太阳能活动预测。太阳能发电机的性质是太阳能活动预测的核心,这些预测对于低地轨道(LEO)卫星轨道规划很重要。原因是太阳紫外线(UV)和极端紫外(EUV)光谱辐射膨胀膨胀地球的上大气层,形成了这些卫星轨道的热圈和外部。关于发电机,我们讨论了最近的一些新的旨在实现其理解的方法。对于太阳能预测,我们专注于“太阳能前体方法”,其中Sun的极地领域在预测基于Babcock-Leighton Dynamo的下一个周期的活动方面发挥了重要作用。对于Sun的极地领域的电流低值,该方法预测,太阳循环#24将是最近最低的最低时间之一,具有平滑的F10.7无线电磁通值达到近130±30(2σ),在2013时间框架附近。可能需要将太阳能活动视为20世纪初的太阳能活动,以找到可比数量的循环。需要考虑Leo卫星在卫星上的低太阳能活性的伴随效果,例如轨道碎片的增强。支持我们对低太阳循环的预测#24由缺乏2007年的上半年缺乏新的周期太阳黑子。通常在太阳循环中的现在时期(〜7 +次数在最后的太阳能之后) ,对于循环后的正常尺寸,将看到新的周期太阳黑子。此时缺乏外观只是与低循环#24一致。弱小幅度的极地观察与太阳电晕中看到的不寻常结构一致。极性冠状孔是太阳的开放式场地结构的标志。目前,似乎极性冠状孔相对较弱,并且存在许多赤道冠状孔。这与弱极性区域表示一致,但是必须在观察技术发生变化时仔细仔细仔细仔细审查冠状孔数据。我们还讨论了新的太阳能发电机思想和苏打水(太阳能发电机幅度)指数,它为用户提供了在太阳循环的各个阶段追踪太阳的隐藏的发电机磁场。我们的太阳能发电机的想法是浅太阳能发电机的Babcock-Leighton原创理念的现代化和恢复,使用似乎支持其浅发出的发电机观点的现代观测。我们敬畏能够看到一个物体,因为我们的型号在几年内提供了戏剧性的变化的剧烈变化。然而,太阳经历了像这样的迅速的变化!太阳上的天气至少是地球上的天气。

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