Evaluating County-level Potential Production Capacity of Potatoes for Maine using the Crop Model SPUDSIM

摘要

The United States Eastern Seaboard Region, consisting of the coastal states from Maine to Virginia, depends on centralized and distantly produced food to supply its urban population. Nonlocal food sources may be vulnerable to uncertainties such as increasing fuel costs, population growth, and climate change. County-level estimates of potential crop production capacity, as well as the associated resource requirements, are necessary to aidfarmers and policy planners in making management decisions and identifying potential areas for local food production. The potato growth model SPUDSIM, developed by USDA-ARS, was used to simulate potato production for each county in Maine. Daily climate data generatedfrom the model CLIGEN based on historic data from NOAA weather stations were used along with SSURGO soil data and management information to quantify crop yield and resource requirements (fertilizer and irrigation) at a high resolution throughout the state. The simulated crop productivity was aggregated to determine the distribution of crop productivity at the county scale and compared with agricultural census data from NASS. The production capacity was compared to the potential future capacity under various scenarios, providing valuable information forlocal agencies as well as providing a baseline for future research regarding predicting potential production capacity under land use change and climate change scenarios.