Probability Analysis of Terrorist Attacks on Urban Facilities Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

摘要

Terrorism has become a main threat against national safety and public safety since 9.11, and has drawn great attention form all governments. Public facilities in urban areas are frequent targets for terrorist attacks. But in terms of risk analysis, it is very difficult to give objective estimates on the probability of terrorist attacks on urban facilities. At present the probability can be estimated only by experts without any quantitative method. To calculate the probability of terrorist attacks and offer effective basis for risk analysis, a new calculating method based on fuzzy set theory is presented, which turns the experts' languages into mathematical languages and finally confirms the probability of terrorist attacks using fuzzy set theory. In its application, the probability of a terrorist attack on a facility in a city is confirmed.