Quantitative Risk Analysis of the Crowd Massing Public Venues

摘要

The great development of urbanization leads a lot of accidents of massing crowd in public venues. Societal risk is used to quantify this kind of accident in this article. On the one hand, according to the previous study, in a certain time span, the occurrences of the accidents in public venues and its probabilities can be described as Poisson distribution. And then quantitative model of frequency of the accident could be obtained. One the other hand, statistical data on times of accidents in different severity degrees could be used to obtain the corresponding frequency. And it could describe the accident's conditional occurrence probability. On the basis of the probability of fatal accident, we can firstly calculate the probability of accidents which lead to different number of death, then acquire the corresponding F-N curve, finally analyze the societal risk of crowd massing by the use of F-N curve.