The Application and Prospect of Risk Analysis in flood in the Past 25 Years

摘要

Flood risk analysis is the foundation of implementing the non-engineering measures. System risk is defined in this paper. The flood risk analysis methods have shown a progress from DI method, MC method, MFOSM method and SO method, to AFOSM method and JC method. And the use of risk analysis in flood in the past 25 years is also reviewed. Four expectations are put forward: (1) To make the connotation clearly and unified; (2) To carry out "risk of risk analysis"; (3) To apply the entropy theory; (4) To advance the basic theory and methods like fuzzy information optimization technology.