AN ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL SILICON PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PV INDUSTRY

摘要

The problem of a silicon feedstock constraint has increasingly plagued the PV industry for the last 18 months. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the current and projected supply and demand of silicon is useful in understanding prospects for future growth of the PV industry. In 2005, global polysilicon capacity was just over 31,000 metric tons (MT). Over 40,000 MT of capacity is expected to be added over the next five years, bringing global capacity to more than 75,000 MT. However, even with this expansion, the PV industry will still be restricted to more modest growth than it has seen in the last few years. Sensitivity analysis shows that while in 2008 polysilicon capacity will match demand for up to a 30% growth in cell production, in subsequent years demand for polysilicon feedstock once again exceeds capacity. Furthermore, growth rates greater than 30% are not achievable with currently announced capacity expansions.