A META SYSTEM FOR UNDERSTANDING INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

摘要

This paper uses Nomology, a decision science approach to structuring qualitative decisions, to show that conflict decision-making uses a generic framework based on a succession of dichotomies. The first dichotomy is whether the two parties mainly agree or disagree. The second is whether to use direct or indirect action. These combine to form four General Political Adjustment Activities, which have corresponding dilemmas: Collaboration (Integration), Cooperation (Agreement), Confrontation (Persuasion) and Conflict (Escalation). It explores how the generic activities might be perceived in terms of Chinese culture and systems and suggests that the agree/disagree dimension corresponds to being in harmony or not. It suggests that the direct/indirect dimension appears in Chinese culture as the use of power versus guanxi or relationships through people. One difference with the West is that Chinese culture appears to put more emphasis on Conflict Resolution, i.e. the adapting process of moving in the reverse direction away from Conflict. A second difference appears to be a lack of balance within these dimensions as might have been expected within a culture influenced by Confucious, so conscious of the Yin/Yang balance in everything. There seems to be an over strong emphasis on being in harmony, and on respecting power, especially seniority and authority. This seems evident in the lack of emphasis on Confrontation rather than seeing it as a bridge whereby to pass from Conflict to Cooperation. This contrasts with the United States, which appears both to focus too much on using its power to force other countries to adjust, and to have difficulty with both Confrontation and Cooperation in international politics. It suggests that China may be very well positioned to help contribute to a stable international political order based on international cooperation and harmony-seeking.