Homogenous Markov Analysis of the Proportion of Enterprise-Supplier Relationship Types under SCM Strategy

摘要

The paper classifies 5 independent types of relationship between supplier and -enterprise and points out that the coexistence of these types. Furthermore, the evolutionary process of relationship type transformation is regarded as Markov Process. On basis of this hypothesis, the homogenous Markov Model where one-step transformation probability matrix is normal probability matrix is build up and used to analyze and forecast the state probability of different relationship types in ideal status. Lastly, the paper provides with an empirical study on the feasibility of the developed model on the forecast of the proportion of enterprise-supplier relationship types by employing the data of supplier transformation of a world's top 500 company. The model is based on the hypothesis that the total number of suppliers is constant. In practice, the number of the suppliers of the enterprise varies under such circumstances as the administration activity of merge with other enterprise, the number of launched products higher than that of obsolete products and re-partition of supplier resources among the competitive counterparts. In addition, The SCM strategy of the dominant enterprise modifies as well with the change of competition environment; therefore, the state transformation probability is not always constant. In the application, the model is preferred to use for the analysis of ideal relationship type proportion for the traditional manufacturer as the dominant enterprise in the supply chain (such as international traditional chemical Pharmaceuticals) where the market share is stable, product development life cycle is long and the enterprise scale is large and the enterprise has a long-term SCM strategy. The result of analysis and forecast from the model plays a reference role in the assessment of the effectiveness of enterprise SCM strategy.