Investment Demands in Various Stages of Power Network Development

摘要

Accurate estimation of power network investment demand is of great importance for a power network company to develop the optimal investment strategy, optimal planning scheme and the optimal operation strategy. The investment demand presents obviously different characteristics under different stages of power network development. In this paper, a self-adaptive bell curve model with a density dependence parameter is first presented to describe the investment demand curve in light of the relationship between power network investment demand and development stages. Then, the actual historical investment data of Japanese power industry in the period from 1955 to 2010 are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model. Finally, the investment demand of a provincial power network in east China is analyzed with the proposed model, and the impacts of symmetry and time lag of the investment demand curve on investment allocation are also examined.