A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities

摘要

Many firms are pursuing unconventional resource opportunities across the globe as a low risk vehicle for growth. Unfortunately, not all resource plays have met the expectations of this low risk model. Some opportunities are very product price dependent and others are both price and technology dependent. This paper provides an overview of the North American industry's use of statistically based production and EUR type curves to assess new opportunities and ongoing developments. This paper highlights an alternative methodology for the selection of future unconventional resource opportunities based on their corporate definition of materiality and the use of analog production type curves. This methodology focuses on appropriate production type curves rather than reservoir models for tight gas sands and shale gas opportunities. Examples of production type curves will be presented to demonstrate the need to align these curves to the geological facies, the well type (vertical versus horizontal), and the completion technology (fracture stimulation size, fracture fluids, and the number of fracture stages). The appropriate selection from the myriad of unconventional resource opportunities available is often a critical component to achieving corporate goals. Pick the wrong opportunity and even with superb execution, the returns are limited. Selecting the right unconventional resource opportunity enhances your probability to please shareholders. The methodology is similar, yet unique from traditional basin analysis in its use of Common Risk Segment (aka 'traffic light') maps and production type curves versus a range of reserves in a prospect.