首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2004 vol.1 >SHORT RANGE WAVE FORECASTS USING ENSEMBLE WAVE PREDICTION SYSTEM
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SHORT RANGE WAVE FORECASTS USING ENSEMBLE WAVE PREDICTION SYSTEM

机译:使用集合波预测系统的短程波预测

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An ensemble ocean wave prediction system is developed to predict wave fields for several days using a weather ensemble prediction system. The characteristics and validity of the ensemble ocean wave prediction system are discussed analyzing the results of numerical simulation. The predicted mean wave height by the ensemble ocean wave prediction system is highly correlated with analysis data and is slightly underestimated as forecast length becomes longer. The predicted wave height by the ensemble ocean wave prediction system is correlated with spread, scatter of ensemble member, as well as the wind and atmospheric pressure in the ensemble weather prediction. The value of spread is monotonically increased with the forecast length increased and it gives reliability of forecasts.
机译:使用天气合奏预测系统开发了一个集合海浪预测系统以预测波场几天。讨论了集合海浪预测系统的特征和有效性分析了数值模拟的结果。由集合海波预测系统的预测平均波高度与分析数据高度相关,并且随着预测长度变长而略微低估。通过集合海浪预测系统的预测波高度与集合构件的扩散,散射,以及集合天气预报中的风和大气压相关。随着预测的长度的增加,扩散的价值随着预测的增加,它提供了预测的可靠性。

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