SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF COASTAL RECESSION AROUND SANDWIP ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, BANGLADESH

摘要

The northern Bay of Bengal consists of a number of deltaic islands, generally densely populated and exposed to extreme hydro-meteorological events. In recent years, shoreline retreat through erosion has affected most of the islands in the region and is particularly severe for Sandwip. In the present paper shoreline change behavior of the island is analyzed using the time history of shoreline position data and employing Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). Short-term prediction of shoreline position is obtained using the first EOF mode, which showed considerable difference with prediction from linear regression (LR) analysis. EOF analysis places more emphasis on recent shoreline development trends and, therefore, likely to predict better the short-term changes.