A discrete constitutive equation is described for predicting the initiation and evolution of leads in Arctic ice. A key feature of the new model is the ability to predict axial splitting under uniaxial compression with a suitable choice of material parameters. Other unique aspects of the model are the capability to handle multiple cracks at a point, to predict modes of failure according to the state of stress, and to build in pre-existing planes of weakness that may be due, for example, to frozen leads. A method is suggested for estimating values of material parameters for in situ ice by utilizing satellite data describing the motion of Arctic ice.
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