ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL TECHNICAL GHG EMISSION REDUCTION ACTION CONSIDERED UNCERTAINTY IN KYOTO PROTOCOL SECOND COMMITMENT PERIOD

摘要

International discussion on the 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is supposed to start from the next year, and it is thought that COP will argues about the right or wrong of the determination of GHG emission reduction target of the present Annex B countries or a GHG emission reduction target setup to developing countries in the 2nd commitment period. Since any specific regulations for the 2nd commitment period have not decided yet at all, although large uncertainty exists in the institutional side, we attempted to derive the optimal energy system development for the world up until at the end of the 2nd commitment period through use of a new global energy system model, boldly supposing various cases (especially setup of 2nd commitment period GHG emission reduction target). We believe it is very important to explore the energy and environmental policy towards GHG emission reduction target achievement of Annex B countries including Japan with the powerful computer simulation model. In this research, we also formulated Kyoto Mechanism (flexibility mechanism) in our energy model and tried to analyze specific energy strategies by nation or region, optimizing the global energy system subject to GHG emission reduction target in the 2nd commitment period from 2000 to 2017 using this model. Through application of our model to Kyoto Mechanism, we intend to propose optimal technical measures to achieve emission reduction commitment.