Decision Support's precising Technology in the Investment Project Risk Management

摘要

In this work the Decision Support's precising technology for the credit risk minimization is proposed in selection of investment projects. This is a novel technology combining fuzzy discrimination and the expertons method. The technology offers two stages of evaluation of investment projects. In the first stage, projects with insignificant or low risks are selected with the aid of the expertons method from a total, possibly large, number of projects. The data required for this stage include interval pessimistic and optimistic estimates supplied by experts regarding all competing projects. This knowledge is condensed and for each investment project the levels are constructed on the set of possible risks, whence projects with low or insignificant risks are identified. The second stage to precise the decision. Its implies application of the possibilistic discrimination method (constructed in this work) to a relatively small number of projects selected in the first stage with the aim of comparing them and finding high-quality projects. For these projects a conclusion is made in the form of advice on granting the credit. As a result, the advising Decision Support system has been constructed completely based on our offered combined method. At the end of the paper, an example is given clearly illustrating the capabilities of the constructed system.