A Numerical Box Model with Lagging Argument for the Simulation of ~(90)Sr Transport in the Kiev Reservoir

摘要

A box model with lagging argument (UNDBE) describing the transport ~(90)Sr in the Kiev reservoir is presented. The model takes into account the time of transportation of water (and, consequently, of the pollutant) through a reservoir and mixing the pollutant in a certain part of compartment volume to the moment of completion of transportation. It is possible to considerably increase the accuracy of the on - line prediction of pollutant (Sr) concentration at the outlet of the reservoir with minor complication of mathematical and programming tools and without increasing requirements to the quality of full - scale measurements. The availability of the parametric identification module allows finding the sets of parameters at which the model most reliably describes the pollutant transport, which, in turn, contributes to the increase of accuracy of the model and provides the possibility of its adjustment to a particular reservoir. Results of a comparison with the box model for complete mixing, calibration of the model on a dataset of field measurements through critical 1994 and validation on data through 1991, 1999 critical situations are given. The post -Chernobyl measurements were used. With help of model the possible influence of modes of operation the Kiev HPP on concentration Sr is appreciated.